PEACEFUL WAR
How the Chinese Dream and the American
Destiny Create a Pacific New World Order

Peaceful War is an epic analysis of the unfolding drama between the clashing forces of the Chinese dream and American destiny. Just as the American experiment evolved, Deng Xiaoping’s China has been using “Hamiltonian means to Jeffersonian ends” and borrowed the idea of the American Dream as a model for China’s rise. The Chinese dream, as reinvented by President Xi Jinping, continues Deng’s experiment into the twenty-first century. With a possible “fiscal cliff” in America and a “social cliff” in China, the author revisits the history of Sino-American relations to explore the prospects for a return to the long-forgotten Beijing-Washington love affair launched in the trade-for-peace era. President Barack Obama’s Asia pivot strategy and the new Silk Road plan of President Xi could eventually create a pacific New World Order of peace and prosperity for all. The question is: will China ultimately evolve into a democratic nation by rewriting the American Dream in Chinese characters, and how might this transpire?
Foreword by Professor Jack Goldstone, School of Public Policy
GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY
A “Pacific” New World Order
The United States welcomes the continuing peaceful
rise of China as a world power and that, in fact, it is in the United States’
interest that China continues on the path of success, because we believe that a
peaceful and stable and prosperous China is not only good for Chinese but also
good for the world and for the United States. President BARACK OBAMA, Sunnylands at Rancho Mirage, California on June 8,
2013
No international relationship is more
important to the future of the world—to the prospects for lasting peace and
economic prosperity—than that between the United States and China. The United
States has been the world’s greatest economic and military power for the last
sixty years. But China filled that role for several hundred years prior to the
eighteenth century, and is now aiming to recapture its historical supremacy in
the economic, cultural, and technological realms.
Many scholars have attempted to shed light
on this relationship, whether from the perspective of great-power rivalry, or
China’s recent economic progress, or American decline. Yet none of these approaches
fully captures the history and cultural identity of these two nations, or their
long relationship.
Patrick Mendis, an award-winning public
servant and acclaimed author, was born in Sri Lanka, where Chinese and Western
influences have met since the sixteenth century. Educated in the British and
American systems, he has served the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee and
in various agencies of the U.S. government. From his early youth, living in a
UNESCO World Heritage Site in his native land, he has risen to become a
commissioner of the United States National Commission for UNESCO—an appointment
made by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the White House. Mendis
has also taught at several major universities in the United States and China,
and traveled extensively throughout the United States, Europe, and Asia. With
this rich diversity of experiences, he is ideally situated to bring a fresh
perspective to this pivotal relationship, capable of looking at two countries as
both an insider and an outsider.
THE VISION THING
Mendis takes us deeply into the roots of
Chinese and American cultures. America considers itself an exceptional nation
in world history; but so too do the Chinese. America is built on a vision, on
an “American Dream” of equality, freedom, and growing prosperity for all. China is also built on a vision, or rather a
blend of two visions: the Confucian ideal of a harmonious society ruled by
virtue, and the Communist ideal of a vanguard party that leads China into the
modern industrialized world. Mendis illustrates how the American and Chinese
visions powerfully shape both foreign and domestic policy; indeed they shape
the way each nation sees itself and its relation to others.
The United States has offered its vision to
the world as the “Washington Consensus” based on free markets and liberal
politics. China too has offered its vision globally, as a “Beijing Consensus,”
in which strong central government, development planning, and an emphasis on a
stable and orderly society are more important than democratic freedoms.
In which
direction will the world turn? Mendis asserts that China will have to move toward
embracing the American dream—because that is what the Chinese people are coming
to demand. Quoting Thomas Jefferson, Mendis observes that “Human nature is the same on every side of
the Atlantic [and the Pacific] and will be alike influenced by the same
causes.” Noting that people everywhere, once they have a basic level of
security, want accountable government and personal freedom, Mendis boldly
predicts that “sooner or later, if left unaddressed, this natural human
tendency will undermine the entire CPC [Communist Party of China] pyramid like
a chamber of magma lying beneath a mammoth volcano.”
In my view, it is also an economic
imperative for China to undergo political change. If China is to move to the
next stage of economic development, it will need to reward creativity,
originality, and innovation. Yet it is difficult, if not impossible, to reward
these qualities in the context of tight central controls on information and
communication. Innovative thinking emerges more easily and naturally in a free
and open society.
Nonetheless,
even if China develops western-style democracy, it will be a democracy with distinctive
Chinese characteristics—what Mendis cleverly describes as “rewriting the American
Dream in Chinese characters.” Moreover, the translation will not come all at
once, as at present America and China are in competition
everywhere—geopolitically, economically, and ideologically. Beijing is
investing heavily in Africa, south Asia, Latin America, and even in America’s
own backyard in the Caribbean. Mendis views this as the subtle application of a
Monroe Doctrine-like approach by China. At the same time, America has declared
a “pivot to Asia,” strengthening its commitment and cooperation with Japan,
South Korea, Taiwan, building ties to new (Vietnam) and old (the Philippines)
allies in the region, and seeking to play a strategic role in managing conflicts
in the South China Sea and throughout the western Pacific.
A BUDDHIST
CONNECTION
Mendis illustrates an interesting
development in his native Sri Lanka. In the days of Imperial China, Sri Lanka
was famed as the “crown jewel” in the Chinese string of pearls naval strategy
to secure China’s access to the Indian Ocean. It was a port of special interest
to the Ming Admiral Zheng He, an imperial envoy to this Buddhist nation during
his voyages across the Indian Ocean between 1405 and 1433. Although after World
War II, Sri Lanka was a pro-American parliamentary democracy, the Buddhist
country is now a satellite state for Beijing with increasing infrastructure investment,
economic interest, and Chinese access to Colombo harbor and the newly-built
Hambantota deep-water seaport. Mendis reveals China’s innocuous Buddhist diplomacy,
harking back to the religious ties that had linked both countries for
millennia, as a shrewd strategy in the region to counter the maritime interests
of India and the United States.
Although China professes to be pursuing a
“Peaceful Rise,” China’s pursuit of its strategic interests in the Indian
Ocean, Africa, and the South China Sea, and its ethos of historical supremacy
and Confucian superiority, are fanning the flames of nationalism and creating
risks of conflicts abroad. Yet drawing on his longer-term historical
perspective, Mendis is optimistic that China and America will avoid overt
conflict. Instead, he foresees a “Peaceful War” of ideas and positional
maneuvering between these great powers.
Mendis describes this possible scenario as “the presence of force
without war.” Somewhat like the Cold War, it will involve competition for
global influence between major powers; but unlike America and the Soviet Union
in the Cold War, China and the U.S. will remain major trading partners for
their mutual economic prosperity. The Chinese and American people, too, will
continue to trade in ideas, practices, and knowledge. Mendis, for example,
predicts that Chinese students in American colleges and universities (over
723,000 enrolled in the 2010-2011 academic year) will return to China as
“missiles of freedom” from liberal U.S. institutions. This is a distinctive
feature of Sino-American relations, quite different from the Soviet era.
Moreover, given the demographic issues facing
China (an aging and shrinking labor force) and the fiscal issues facing the
U.S. (the need to bring down a massive level of government debt), both
countries will benefit from cooperation and seeking win-win solutions. Mendis explains
that the potential for a “social cliff” in China and a “fiscal cliff” in
America will inevitably force both nations to find creative solutions for their
domestic challenges as a prime national security issue.
A “PACIFIC” DREAM
Using the past as a prism to see into the
future, Mendis traces the history of U.S.-Chinese relations back to colonial
America, and lays out America’s long-standing love affair with China and things
Chinese. His research shows that the relationship between these two countries
has always been important and evolving for mutual benefit. Mendis notes the
risks involved when American belief in its own manifest destiny confronts a
China whose “Chinese Dream” is to again be the world’s dominant nation.
Nonetheless, Mendis argues that their “Peaceful War” will lead to the birth of
a new “Pacific” New World Order, in which both countries cooperate for the sake
of trade, economic growth, and regional stability.
I know of no better guide to the
multi-faceted relationship between America and China, and its likely evolution
in the coming decades, than this book. The author takes the reader on wonderfully
rich voyages, back and forth over the Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the South
China Sea—and across time. Throughout, Mendis is a superbly engaging, erudite,
and thoughtful guide.
At a time when both America and China are
engulfed in anxiety about the relations between themselves and among their
allies, Patrick Mendis offers a much needed and timely antidote to prevailing
pessimism. I genuinely hope that leaders on both sides of the Pacific will read
and pay attention to the innovative and inspiring ideas in this book; they
point the way to a better future for all of us.
Professor Jack A. Goldstone
Virginia E. and John T. Hazel, Jr. Professor of Public Policy
George Mason University




